La-Nina and negative IOD are expected to evolve during the next three months, whereas ENSO and IOD are now at neutral negative. As a result, the Northeast monsoon in 2024 will be entirely driven by evolving La Nina and negative IOD.
Full fledged easterlies from south China sea establishing by early November. Once, the current south China sea typhoons weakens completely it will make a way for the fresh easterly wave impact to Tamil Nadu by first week of November.
Currently, Indian ocean under unfavorable planetary waves progression. None of the planetary waves supporting neither Arabian sea nor Bay Of bengal. Hence,typhoons at south China sea and west Pacific Ocean will not enter Bay of bengal.
Even though train fo systems lingering around south China sea and West Pacific Ocean. It unlikely to enter Indian Ocean with unfavourable progression of planetary waves but when the cyclone dissipates completely, it will makes way for full fledged easterlies establishment. And we have to note that “MJO moving to Phase 7,8,1” during upcoming days. It’s obvious that models might biased with westerly trough influence & takes the system to Myanmar, Bangladesh or somewhere north. So, it’s waste of time to see model runs beyond 180 hrs. Please take a note “November 5 to 25th going to be coastal Tamil Nadu show”.
Fresh pulse of Madden Julian Oscillation will emerge at West Indian Ocean by second week of November. It likely to interact with equatorial Rossby wave at East Indian Ocean and remains stationary over East Indian Ocean and Maritime continent till the last week of November. As it fights with Rossby wave, MJO may get weaken however it will support back to back rain filled event for Tamil Nadu. Kelvin also expected to arrive Indian ocean by Mid November. Hence, gathering of planetary waves likely to bring Excess November to entire Tamil Nadu and Large excess rains to Coastal region of Tamil Nadu. Chennai to Thanjavur north coastal should get prepared for record breaking rains.
