Happy Diwali to all of you! The past few days have been extremely hot and uncomfortable. Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing since yesterday. And now is the moment to welcome our beloved Easterlies from the South China Sea during next 36 hours.
West Pacific Ocean Typhoon expected to dissipate in next 48 hours. Once it get fade, it will make way for the establishment of easterly wave to southern peninsular India. And the conditions are getting favorable for the complete establishment of easterlies from south China sea by 2nd November, 2024.
Tomorrow as well we can expect thunderstorms activity over coastal during early morning & noon time. And interiors during evening/night hours. From November 2nd early morning onwards we can expect free moving clouds from sea to land. Especially Chennai, Thiruvallur, Chengalpet, Villupuram, Pondicherry, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur districts likely to see heavy rainfall activity on this Saturday. Adjacent interiors also will catch rains.
Equatorial Rossby wave currently influencing Maritime continent and Kelvin wave influencing Africa continent. Both expected to move towards Indian Ocean during next 4-5 days. And this will bring active monsoon conditions from 5th November, 2024. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected arrive by second week of November.
Currently models are struggling with planetary waves & underestimating rainfall activity of southern peninsular India. The prevailing conditions are getting very favourable for active monsoon period during Nov 1st to 10th (Heavy to very heavy rains with isolated extreme rains associated with easterlies, trough of low, cyclonic circulation, low pressure area), Vigorous monsoon phase during Nov 11th to 20th (Very heavy to extremely heavy rains associated with well marked low, depression), active monsoon phase Nov 21st to 27th (Heavy to extremely heavy spells with Depression, Cyclonic storm). Overall monsoon activity will pickup from 5th Nov & it will attain it’s peak between 10th Nov and 27th Nov, 2024. Kindly note: it’s not going to rain all the day from 1st Nov till 27th, break will be at here & there with various intensity but I just differentiated the month with three categories to give you picture about the expected progression of peak Northeast monsoon phase.
This November going to be rain filled one either trough of low or cyclonic storm it will dump extreme rains especially Chennai to Nagapattinam coastal stretch should be prepared to see some historical rainfall activity. TamilNadu’s state average is 19 cms, this November we can expect 30 cms at the least.
