The past two days have seen some early morning/morning coastal showers, midday interior rains, and decent night rains in the western ghats. As this pattern indicates, the “easterlies have established completely over southern peninsular India.” The surface level easterlies appear to be rather good as well. An imminence of “active Northeast monsoon conditions” is indicated.
Tamil Nadu continues to see frequent rainfall despite the suppressive conditions in the Indian Ocean, which is encouraging. The interplay of the low level easterlies, westerly dip, and strong Indo-Arabian ridge, on the other hand, are difficult for numerical models to capture. Thus, there are no vibrant charts displayed in the short range. The “Northeast Monsoon” is a time when this model bias and problems are frequently observed. The collision of the Arabian Ridge, mid-level westerlies, and low-level easterlies is anticipated to produce a high atmospheric moisture flux, it can lead intense rainstorm at the north coastal Tamil Nadu on November 6–7, 2024.
A fresh Cyclonic circulation along with trough of low expected to form over Southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hrs. Under its influence, a fresh low pressure area likely to emerge at Southwest Bay of Bengal by 8th Nov, 2024
It will bring dry-moisture air incursion which results intense heavy rains at short period of time over Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpet zone on 6th Nov, 2024 and on following day (Nov 7th, 2024) we can expect same kind dry-moisture line thunderstorms at Villupuram, Pondicherry, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai and Nagapattinam dts.
Overall, Coastal TamilNadu rainfall activity expected to increase gradually from 6th Nov, 2024
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to emerge at West Indian Ocean by next 5-7 days. With the fight between Equatorial Rossby wave, It likely to be stationery at Indian Ocean/Maritime continent till Dec 1st week.
Hence, we have plenty of time to make this historically rememberable November & December. So, just keep patience and enjoy the rains. November average for TamilNadu is 19 cms, this year we can see 30 cms at the least. Don’t bothered about ECMWF or ICON or GFS or any other models. Give some time, models will get align soon.
