Another rain-bearing system is on the way! KTCC’s special treat loading.

Another rain-bearing system is on the way! KTCC’s special treat loading.

This year’s monsoon season is truly unforgettable because back to back ative phases of monsoon especially extreme monsoon conditions from Fengal cyclone and 90b, and Tamilnadu has already reached 56 cm. And monsoon still wants to another special show for KTCC zone.

A low pressure area has formed over central parts of Bay of Bengal. It likely to become a well marked low pressure area within next 24 hrs and there is a possibility of another intensification into depression when it reaches near to the coasts. Forgot the landfall, but it’s going to be a another rain bearing event for North coastal Tamilnadu.

Planetary wave continues to support 91b as well. Madden Julian Oscillation observed stationary over Maritime continent which will supports Bay of Bengal to host another rain bearing system.

During the initial days, Fengal and 90b experienced wind shear issues, but 91b enjoyed relaxed wind shear. Over the following two to three days, there should be reduced wind shear. Shear tendency also under check.

Slow moving/stalling scenario is the theme of Northeast monsoon 2024 and the trend going to continue next 2-3 days as well. When the low approaches Tamilnadu, Arabian ridge, Pacific ridge and Westerly trough all coming into the picture. Initially low likely to get caught between the ridges, it will results very slow movement/stalling scenario off North Tamilnadu coasts during Dec 17th & 18th, 2024. With favourable wind shear, sea surface temperature and planetary waves support system already showing meaty western quadrant. Chennai to Cuddalore stretches likely to get benefit from this meaty west quadrant. Overall it likely to give heavy rains to North coastal Tamilnadu right from Chennai to Nagapatinam zone during Dec 17-20th, 2024.

Westerly trough influence slowing coming to influence the system from 18th Dec, especially on 19th Dec it’s taking over our system to it’s control. However, it will results further stalling scenario and also bands may displaced to north-northeast quadrant of the system by 19th Dec, 2024 only.

Overall conclusion widespread heavy to very heavy rains with isolated extreme rainfall possibility over Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpet dts during Dec 17-20th, 2024. Fengal affected Pudhucherry, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thiruvanamazhai, Kallakuruchi dts also will get heavy to very heavy rains during the same period. Considering the fengal impact & water resources level, it’s advisable to be prepared and cautious about the current low at Chennai to Cuddalore zone.

Delta districts like Mayiladuthurai, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur and Thanjavur will get decent heavy rains & one or two places of coastal delta may get very heavy rains from this system but need not to worry. North interiors like Ranipet, Vellore, Thiruvanamazhai, Kallakuruchi also will catch good rains. Overall North Tamilnadu special system on cooking.

It’s not about hyping or creating panic, considering the lake storage of Chennai and suburbs. It’s advisable for low lying area peoples to be cautious during Dec 17-20th, 2024. It’s better to be prepared, rather than say sorry.